Written by Umang Saini
on 

Deficit

Here are some numbers on India’s deficit and debt.

  1. 2005-06 – Fiscal deficit – 4.1% GDP
  2. 2006-07 – Fiscal deficit – 3.5% GDP

  3. 2007-08 – Expenditure - 6.4 Lac Cr (est.)
  4. 2007-08 – Revenue deficit – 0.71 Lac Cr (est.)
  5. 2007-08 – Fiscal deficit – 1.50 Lac Cr (est.)
  6. 2007-08 – Fiscal deficit – 1.43 Lac Cr (actual) (3.17% GDP)

  7. 2008-09 – Expenditure - 7.50 Lac Cr (estimated)
  8. 2008-09 – Expenditure - 9.00 Lac Cr (actual). Yes.
  9. 2008-09 – Revenue deficit – 0.55 Lac Cr (estimated)
  10. 2008-09 – Revenue deficit – 2.41 Lac Cr (actual)
  11. 2008-09 – Fiscal deficit – 1.33 Lac Cr (estimated)
  12. 2008-09 – Fiscal deficit – 3.26 Lac Cr (actual) (6% GDP)

  13. 2009-10 – Expenditure - 9.53 Lac Cr (estimated)
  14. 2009-10 – Fiscal deficit – 5.5% GDP (estimated)

*This excludes off-budget liabilities which could be as high as 5% of GDP (bonds issued to oil-fertilizer companies etc.).

The actual chart looks like this -

Gross_Fiscal_Deficit_India *Image Source finmin.nic.in report.

FRBM -
In light of deteriorating Tax/GDP ratio, NDA government passed FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management) act to reduce revenue deficit to zero by 2005-06 and then create a surplus. This was amended by UPA, and deadline deferred to 2007-08. In 2004 it was again deferred to 2008-09. We all know what happened. We are back to 1991 levels of revenue and fiscal deficit. Never since 1970’s has the estimated figures been so much off than actual. It is a colossal failure and mockery of laws passed by the parliament.

Public Debt -
Public debt currently stands at ~78% of GDP (2008). Historic chart here -

Debt_to_GDP_ratio

This is total (state + center, external + internal debt). External debt alone is as follows -

    Sl. No Year Debt in Billion USD
    1 1991 83
    2 1996 93
    3 1998 93
    4 1999 96
    5 2001 101
    6 2002 98
    7 2003 104
    8 2004 111
    9 2005 123
    10 2006 125
    11 2007 169
    12 2008 221 (est.)

For central government debt stands at 41.7% of GDP at close of FY08.

Earlier last year Indian PM requested the following -

“… each one of us can conserve energy and contribute to national security. I urge every citizen to conserve energy at every step, every minute of the day. Be it petrol, diesel, kerosene, LPG, electricity or even water – let us learn to save and use efficiently. Let us reduce wasteful consumption of petrol.”

Chris Luebkeman calls our age Homo-Deficitus.

"A hundred years after we are gone and forgotten, those who never heard of us will be living with the results of our actions." – Chris Luebkeman, paraphrasing Oliver Wendall Holmes Jr.

Luebkeman, director of Arup, a global design, engineering, and urban planning firm, is trying to put an end to the "Homo-Deficitus Age," in which we spend and use more than we have.

Bottomline - GOI spends ~13% of our GDP every year, which is a lot of responsibility. It borrows ~25% of this amount every year. Sooner or later, we will come out of this age of deficit, the question is how much pain is the transition going to cost?

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US

*Note – These numbers are widely available, and quoted from a variety of sources. If you find any glaring mistake, do mention it in comment.