Written by Umang Saini
on April 13, 2014

2019

In another 5 years, 2019 General Elections should take place (provided 16th Lok Sabha completes it's full term). Here are a few scenarios

2014-19 government does well, stabilizes economy, generates new jobs, manages to keep scams below billion-dollar range. In this case electorate may decide to re-elect the next government.
2014-19 government performs better than UPA-2, however fails to reverse the course. Worse still, they create their own quota of new billion-dollar range scams and work as a typical underachieving central government does.

In both of the above scenario's, the electorate should not forget what UPA-2 has done in 2009-14. And thus, vote for viable emerging options such as AAP. Following scenario's may emerge post 2014 elections -

AAP wins ~5 seats in 2014 with 2% vote share
AAP wins ~55 seats in 2019 with 10% vote share
AAP wins ~155 seats in 2024 with 18% vote share

AAP has the task to increase their voter base from estimated 5-10 million to 50-60 million in 2019 and 200+ million in 2024. The only plausible way they may do it is by replacing either both of the two largest national political parties or one of them. Most likely Indian National Congress (UPA-2).

Either case, the challenges in front of AAP are monumental, and they need to start showing change in ground conditions of people to actually win the loyalty of 200 millions voters in next 10 years.

Best, Umang

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